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Glanville

The Myth of Traditional Sovereignty?

Book review: Sovereignty and the Responsibility to Protect: A New History. Luke Glanville.University of Chicago Press (December 2013). 304 pages. R$ 39,58 (www.amazon.com.br)

The conventional narrative of sovereignty told in the discipline of International Relations used to be that it was established at or around the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, and that for many centuries, its meaning remained the same. Sovereignty practically entailed the absence of accountability until the 20th century, when it was increasingly challenged by largely Western demands of democracy and human rights. The idea of the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) was therefore seen as a radical departure from the traditional interpretation of sovereignty, making it conditional on a government’s capacity and willingness to protect …

Will High Chinese Growth Continue?

Will China be able to maintain high growth over the coming decades? Fewer questions will have a greater impact on the future of global order.

Continued Chinese growth around 6% per year or more over the next twenty years would inevitably bring about dramatic changes in global order, increasing China’s material interests around the world and allowing it to invest heavily in its military, increase foreign aid and globalize its currency.

Lower economic growth in China (say, of 3% per year), on the other hand, would reduce China’s capacity to enhance its international projection and diminish — in the eyes of many– the urgency of the need for reform of global structures. If economic growth rates in China were similar …

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China’s parallel global order

Who was the greatest beneficiary of geopolitical events in 2014? While it will take time to grasp the consequences of the two key developments – the Ukrainian Crisis and the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria – it seems likely that China will emerge as one of the great winners of recent dynamics. Indeed, seen from Bejing, it is hard to imagine a more benign script than that which has unfolded over the past ten months.

Renewed instability in Iraq and Syria effectively curtailed the United States’ attempts to pay less attention to the Middle East and focus on the most potent long-term threat to US hegemony: the rise of China. While a renewed US troop deployment in the …

A aposta de Kissinger no Brasil emergente

Resenha de livro. Matias Spektor:Kissinger e o Brasil. Zahar, 2008. 234 pápginas. R$ 29,90 (www.amazon.com.br)

Independentemente de quem vai ganhar a eleição presidencial do Brasil no final de outubro, um grande desafio na política externa aguarda o próximo governo. O Brasil deve tentar melhorar as relações com os Estados Unidos, que atingiram seu ponto mais baixo quando Dilma Rousseff cancelou uma visita de Estado a Washington, DC depois das revelações de espionagem no final de 2013.

Historicamente, as relações Brasil-EUA têm sido marcadas por expectativas irreais, negligência ou uma falta de compreensão e confiança mútua, como mostra o livro Kissinger e o Brasil, escrito por Matias Spektor.

O livro descreve um esforço notável de Kissinger para formalizar uma …

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O Brasil deve redescobrir seu papel global

Duas décadas e meia após a Guerra Fria, a ordem global ainda é fundamentalmente unipolar. Paradoxalmente, nem a liderança econômica nem a preponderância militar dos EUA são os fatores determinantes para essa configuração. A economia global é multipolar. Os gastos militares norte-americanos representam quase 50% do orçamento militar global, porém ficou evidente uma clara limitação da força militar dos EUA durante as recentes guerras no Afeganistão e Iraque. Contudo, a unipolaridade é ainda uma realidade porque o Ocidente – liderado pelos EUA – é capaz de definir a pauta em debates internacionais e de se projetar globalmente. Definir a agenda global é o resultado de conseguir desenvolver, legitimar e advogar um tema político específico – por exemplo no âmbito econômico …

Kissinger

Inside Kissinger’s Bet on Emerging Brazil

Book review. Kissinger e o Brasil (Kissinger and Brazil) by Matias Spektor. Zahar, 2008. 234 pages. R$ 29,90 (www.amazon.com.br)

Irrespective of who will win Brazil’s presidential election in late October, one key foreign policy challenge awaits the next government: Brazil must seek to improve ties with the United States, which reached its nadir when Dilma Rousseff canceled a state visit to Washington, D.C. over the spying revelations in late 2013. Yet US-Brazil relations have historically been marred by a lack of mutual understanding and trust, unrealistic expectations or outright negligence, as Matias Spektor’s Kissinger e o Brasil (Kissinger and Brazil) shows.

The book describes an interesting effort to establish a US-Brazil alliance that culminated in the 1976 visit …

Brazil’s next government must reassert its global role

Two and a half decades after the end of the Cold War, global order remains fundamentally unipolar. Yet paradoxically, neither US economic nor military dominance are the decisive factors. The global economy is multipolar, and while the United States military budget still makes up almost half of global military spending, the world has witnessed the clear limits of US military power during recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Rather, unipolarity is still a reality because the West – led by the United States – is still able to set the agenda in the international debate and engage on a global scale. Setting the agenda is the result of initiating, legitimizing and successfully advocating a specific policy issue – in the …

Rumo à instabilidade global?

No mês passado, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace enviou perguntas intrigantes aos seus principais especialistas em relações internacionais: “Cada dia parece trazer novos sinais de instabilidade global. Será que o nível de turbulência é realmente inédito na história recente? Ou é apenas uma falsa impressão?” (As respostas podem ser lidas aqui, na seção “Is the World Falling Apart?”).

Vai demorar anos até que a atual situação global possa ser interpretada corretamente. Na sua resposta à pergunta acima, Thomas Carothers, de Carnegie, argumenta que “inúmeros conflitos atuais (Israel-Palestina, Líbia, Iraque, Síria, Afeganistão, Paquistão, Ucrânia, Sudão do Sul, República Centro- Africana, etc.) são uma manifestação da difusão e descentralização do poder que está saindo das mãos dos EUA para os …