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Book review: “Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve” by Thomas Carothers

2012 May 20
by Oliver Stuenkel

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The phenomenon of the so-called "emerging donors" - such as China, India and Brazil - is one of the most fascinating developments of our time, certain to fundamentally change the aid industry. Scholars around the world are now seeking to understand how the new donors' emergence changes the way we think about development and poverty reduction. Yet while several of the BRICS are increasingly important players in the development aid industry, one area remains under Western control: Democracy aid.

Promoting democracy is perhaps one of the most controversial foreign policy topics, and almost everyone has a strong opinion about it. Some see it as an important aspect of the West's strategy to maintain global liberal order, others believe it is hollow rhetoric merely meant to cover up economic interests. Outside of the United States and Europe, the issue is largely regarded as an outgrowth of cultural imperialism, not only useless but in many cases dangerous.

Criticism may be warrented, but very few seem to know what democracy aid actually is and what its effects are. In this context, Thomas Carothers' highly informative and detailed book provides an excellent guide. Although written more than a decade ago, it remains one of the best practical analyses of democracy aid. The author methodically explains all the different forms democracy aid can take - ranging from electoral aid (e.g. electoral monitoring), political party assistance, legislative assistance, media assistance and civic education, and pointing to the strengths and weaknesses of each.

Carothers, who has been a practionioner in the field of democracy aid for many years, is in favor of the practice in principle - but readily identifies the many failures and mistakes US democracy promoters have made and are still making all over the world. The four cases he presents - Guatemala, Nepal, Romania and Zambia - make a sobering read and include countless examples of how difficult promoting democracy is. His chapter on judicial reform, in particular, seemingly affirms the pessismistic notion held by many that "these things cannot be imposed but must grow from within."

Yet Carothers also points out that external factors matter - democratizations, after all, often take place in waves - and that there are examples of US democracy aid with positive effects - the most promiment of all remain Germany and Japan after World War II. But there are also more recent examples - such as the Philippines - in which US pressure contributed to bolstering democratic transitions.

Given that Brazil and India are spending growing amounts of money on development aid in faraway places, why have they not begun to spend resources on democracy aid, too? Just as the United States and Europe, they surely have a great interest in widespread democratization. In addition, their experiences of democratization are much more recent, and their socioeconomic realities often similar to non-democratic countries - so in theory, they would be well-placed engage in the pratice. And yet, Carothers at no point ponders the possibility of non-Western democracies promoting democracy themselves.

Some might say the 'liberal tradition' prevalent in the United States is based on the optimistic and rather native assumption that 'change is easy', something not visible in countries such as Brazil and India. Yet these emerging giants do finance development projects abroad, which is certainly driven by some optimism. A better explanation may be that democracy aid has a more interventionist ring to it than development aid. Trying to help people elsewhere prosper economically is one thing, telling them how to organize themselves politically is quite another.

One of Carothers' more intriguing arguments is that US-Americans support their government's attempts to promote democracy abroad because they think democracy - and specifically, their model of democarcy - is the superior political system. This leads, as the author shows, to at times grotesque situations in which US democracy promoters encourage the adoption of a political model exactly like the one of the United States, even if that makes little sense in another society's context (the same is true for European governments). Accoringly, the conviction of their political system's superiority may simply not be strong enough in Brazil and India to allow for the rather bold step of promoting it abroad.

The question then is - can the U.S. political system become dysfunctional enough for its citizens to reject any attempts to export their model? A mere glance at U.S. politics reveals historic political deadlock, highly controversial campaign finance laws, growing barriers to voter registration in some states that may significantly lower turnout among the poor, a presidental election in 2000 that suffered from potentially decisive irregularities and highly politicized supreme court, etc. US-American citizens are generally aware of these probelms, but they still supports US democracy promotion.

Also, will Indians and Brazilians one day come to like their political system so much that they begin to try to export it? Or will democracy promotion become a thing of the past anyways once China's economy will overtake that of the United States? After all, it the first time in more than a century that the world's leading economy is a non-democratic state.

Carothers does not answer any of these questions, which most likely seemed irrelevant at the time the book was written. Still, his work is a highly readable and sheds light on a little known but important topic in international politics.

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Encontro com o Coordenador – MBA em Relações Internacionais

2012 May 16
by Oliver Stuenkel

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Encontro com o Coordenador do curso MBA em Relações Internacionais

A Fundação Getulio Vargas convida todos os interessados para um encontro com o Prof. Oliver Stuenkel, coordenador do curso de MBA em Relações Internacionais, que ocorrerá no dia 22/05.


Esta é uma ótima oportunidade para obter mais sobre os objetivos, programa, professores, e demais informações sobre o curso.


Dia 22/05 - 3ª feira às 19h na Av. Paulista, 548 - sala 32 – 3º andar

Confirmar presença pelo e-mail marketingmbasp@fgv.br.

Núcleo de Admissão e Matrículas
Fundação Getulio Vargas

http://mgm-saopaulo.fgv.br/cursos-detalhes/mba-em-relacoes-internacionais

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No dia 18 de agosto deste ano começam as aulas da primeira turma do MBA em Relações Internacionais da FGV em São Paulo. O curso existe desde 2009 no Rio de Janeiro, mas contará com conteúdos específicos que respondem às necessidades do mercado paulistano.

“São Paulo é uma das dez principais cidades do mundo, portanto tem importância enorme no cenário internacional. Há uma grande demanda no mercado paulista por um curso que prepare profissionais capacitados a atuar em ambientes verdadeiramente globais”, explica Oliver Stuenkel, professor de Relações Internacionais e coordenador do MBA.

As aulas do MBA em RI acontecerão aos sábados, no prédio da Av. Paulista.

Sobre o MBA

Qual o papel da guerra e da paz no século XXI? De que modo tem evoluído o equilíbrio de poder diante das transformações estruturais do mundo contemporâneo? Qual é o ambiente estratégico em que vivemos e o que há de novo nas relações internacionais nos dias de hoje? O MBA em Relações Internacionais da FGV conta com uma equipe multidisciplinar que prepara seus alunos para responder a essas perguntas com sofisticação. O foco recai na utilização de conceitos para elucidar casos concretos e situações reais na política internacional.

Objetivo

Oferecer treinamento especializado em relações internacionais. O objetivo é qualificar o aluno para lidar criticamente com a conjuntura internacional, bem como capacitá-lo a atuar em ambientes internacionais com destreza.

Público Alvo

Profissionais (graduados) expostos ao meio internacional que precisem desenvolver seu instrumental analítico, principalmente para atuar no poder público, em empresas públicas e privadas, consultorias especializadas, firmas de advocacia, sistema financeiro, no jornalismo e em organizações e grupos internacionais, e que tenham no mínimo 04 anos de experiência profissional relevante.

Programa

1. Análise Política Internacional
2. Questões Internacionais Contemporâneas
3. Políticas Externas Comparadas
4. Economia Internacional
5. Finanças Internacionais
6. Direito Internacional
7. O Brasil no Mundo
8. Orientações de Projetos
9. Negociações Complexas (on-line)
10. Gestão Ambiental e Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Carga horária total: 504 horas/aula

Coordenação

Prof. Dr. Oliver Stuenkel

Data de início

- 18 de agosto de 2012
Aos sábados (quinzenalmente) das 8h30 às 18h

Mais informações:

http://mgm-saopaulo.fgv.br/cursos-detalhes/mba-em-relacoes-internacionais

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Seleção de Estagiário – CPDOC/FGV

2012 May 16
by Oliver Stuenkel

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Sobre o CPDOC/FGV:

O Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação de História Contemporânea do Brasil (CPDOC) é a Escola de Ciências Sociais da Fundação Getulio Vargas. O CPDOC foi criado em 1973 no Rio de Janeiro, e também possui sede em São Paulo, onde mantém desde 2009 uma coordenação. O CPDOC tem o mais importante acervo de arquivos pessoais de pessoas públicas do país, totalizando cerca de 1,3 milhão de documentos.

Em São Paulo, o CPDOC viabiliza e desenvolve estudos e pesquisas nas áreas de ciências sociais, história e relações internacionais, vários deles em conjunto com as outras Escolas da FGV. Além disso, oferece cursos regulares em Relações Internacionais para os alunos matriculados na graduação das escolas de São Paulo - Administração, Direito e Economia; e organiza debates e conferências promovidos pelo Centro de Relações Internacionais que é sediado no CPDOC.

Para os interessados em se aprimorarem após a sua graduação, o CPDOC em São Paulo oferece um MBA em Bens Culturais: Cultura, Economia e Gestão; uma Pós-Graduação (lato sensu) em Cinema Documentário; e um MBA em Relações Internacionais.

O trabalho:
• Apoio à coordenação do CPDOC em São Paulo
• Auxílio na gestão de projetos de pesquisa;
• Organização de eventos acadêmicos, principalmente na área de Relações Internacionais;
• Elaboração de relatórios, ensaios bibliográficos e sínteses temáticas de fontes primárias de pesquisa;
• Auxílio às atividades de história oral nos projetos de pesquisa realizados pelo CPDOC

Competências desejadas:
• Pensar de forma crítica
• Disciplina, organização, bom gerenciamento de tempo;
• Criatividade
• Responsabilidade na execução de tarefas e projetos;
• Ótima comunicação: condução das ideias de maneira clara, concisa, tanto verbalmente quanto por escrito;
• Facilidade com o uso de mídias sociais e ferramentas virtuais


Qualificações desejadas:
• Graduação em andamento em Ciências Sociais, Relações Internacionais, Economia e cursos afins. Formatura a partir de Junho de 2013;
• Fluência oral e escrita em inglês


Outras informações:
Local de trabalho: São Paulo, Av.Paulista.
Remuneração: bolsa-auxílio compatível com mercado + VT + VR
30 horas semanais
Início no dia 1 de junho de 2012

Contato – enviar CV para Ana Patrícia (ana.patricia@fgv.br) até sexta-feira, 18 de maio de 2012
 

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Case study: Brazil’s regional problem

2012 May 16
by Oliver Stuenkel

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Situation:

All conditions relevant to the case are materially the same as they were on May 17th except for the hypotheticals introduced specifically in the case.

You are a young Brazilian diplomat, currently on your second international assignment at the embassy in Asunción, Paraguay. You are known for your expertise in Brazil’s regional policy.

Brazil’s impressive growth is one of the determining aspects of international politics of the past decade; and analysts both at home and abroad are busy debating which role Brazil is to play on the global stage. While Brazil has still plenty of domestic problems to solve – ranging from poverty, a lack of social inclusion, bad infrastructure and deficits in basic education – it cannot be denied that Brazil is on the way to becoming one of the five largest economies of the world in the near future, a role which will require it to assume a lot more international responsibility than many can imagine today.

While Brazil’s growth has received cheers all over the world, Brazil’s immediate neighbors are increasingly wary of the emerging giant in their midst, fearing that it could simply replace the United States as the region’s hegemon, exploiting weaker members economically and bullying them politically. Brazil thus faces the very same challenges as India and China: How to increase economic influence in their respective region without being regarded as a predator?

The question of how its neighbors see it is a growing concern for the Brazilian government. As Brazil’s economic presence in the region grows, politicians in Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia and elsewhere will be increasingly tempted to use Brazil as a scapegoat for economic woes. A string of incidents in the recent past serve as a clear indicator that anti-Brazilian sentiments in the region are on the rise. A large project to build a hydroelectric dam by Brazilian firms in the Peruvian Amazon was recently canceled when Peruvians voices their outrage after it became clear that most of the energy generated would be sent to Brazil. In Mendoza, Vale ran into difficulties after the Argentinian government accused it of not employing a sufficient amount of local staff.

In a recent meeting, a foreign minister of one of Brazil's neighbors told you that his country was culturally more connected to several European countries, saying he felt "far away from Brazil", which now "has a global focus rather than a regional one". But the increasing presence of Brazilian companies in the region, the opaque nuclear policy (e.g. construction of nuclear-power submarines), "makes us uneasy". In another meeting, a Uruguayan minister asked you, “when was the last time Brazil stood up for us?”

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Assignment:

In a meeting of leading foreign policy makers, Antonio Patriota turns to you and asks you to write a memo to assess the situation. “I am worried that we got a bit carried away by our global ambitions, forgetting about the importance of our own backyard” he tells you. “It is possible that we are not doing enough to make sure our neighbors are comfortable with Brazil’s growing importance? As the United States slowly retreat from South America, will frustrated populists in our region begin to blame us for their internal problems? What can we do against that?”

Responding to Patriota, Marco Aurélio Garcia argues that fears of a regional backlash are overblown. “Rather than blaming Brazil, neighboring governments want to copy us”, he says, naming the recent presidential campaign in Peru as an example. “Even in Venezuela, the opposition candidate is now trying to depict himself as the next Lula.”

At the end of the meeting, the President chips in: “No matter who is right”, Dilma reasons, “I think we all agree that there is a tension between our global ambitions and our limited ability to exercise regional leadership. That compromises not only our regional policy, but also our legitimacy when we participate in international summits, such as the G20, IBSA or the BRICS. When we sought to enter the UN Security Council as part of the G-4, some of our neighbors, including Colombia, refused to support us. I think we need to develop a clearer vision about what we want South America to look like in ten or twenty years from now. Our neighbors are simply not fully convinced that our rise is good for them, too. And that, I think, brings us to the underlying question: What does our continent really mean to us? Is it a source of problems, a protective shield against international problems, a launching pad for our global ambitions, or something entirely different?”

Please provide a standard memorandum that includes Brazil’s relevant national interests, a brief historic overview, the operational objectives, three action options, the pros and cons of each action, and a specific recommendation.

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Students of the undergraduate course 'Comparative Foreign Policy' will present their memo in a briefing on Thursday, May 17th. Their recommendations will be presented here.


 

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Gravação do debate “Como a imigração mudará o Brasil”

2012 May 15
by Oliver Stuenkel

Gravação do debate "Como a imigração mudará o Brasil" na Fundação Getulio Vargas no 14 de maio com a Profa. Deisy Ventura da USP e o Paulo Sergio de Almeida, Presidente do Conselho Nacional de Imigração

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Book review: “American Democracy Promotion: Impulses, Strategies and Impacts”

2012 May 12
by Oliver Stuenkel

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Edited by Michael Cox, G. John Ikenberry and Takashi Inoguchi

What is the future of liberal order in a Post-Western World? In tomorrow’s multipolar order, who will promote and defend the liberal concepts and ideas that make our current system to unique? One of the topics for which these questions are particularly pertinent is democracy promotion. We are witnessing a notable shift of power towards countries that are more reluctant when it comes to democracy promotion or reject it entirely. Although some of tomorrow’s global powers, such as Brazil and India, are democratic, it is far from certain that waning Western powers can simply pass the torch of democracy promotion to Brasília and New Delhi. In addition, the consequences of the Arab Spring remain uncertain, and democratic regimes seem highly fragile in Afghanistan and Iraq, countries where the United States spent great resources to plant the seeds of democracy.

Before addressing these questions, however, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of democracy promotion itself, something generally frowned upon outside of Europe and the United States. Even though this collection of essays has been published twelve years ago, it probably remains one of the best studies on this topic.

At the very outset, the analysis shows how much our thinking about democracy has changed in the past decade: Prior to September 11, the War on Terror, and an Iraq War that would severely taint the idea of democracy promotion, the editors confidently assert in the introduction that “democracy has triumphed”, and that democracy was “increasingly the only legitimate means by which we can manage our political affairs effectively.” And yet, as if they had foreseen what was about to come, they warn that the United States “has to understand the limits of its power. If it fails to do so, it could very easily get involved in the same quixotic crusades that cost it so dear during the Cold War.”

In part one, Michal Doyle, Randall Schweller and Steve Smith provide thorough theoretical accounts of the practice of democracy promotion. Doyle warns of the pitfalls of buying into a simplistic worldview made up of Wilsonian liberals who support democracy promotion versus realists (such as Kissinger) who reject it. Rather, there are multiple strands of each tradition, and their conceptions and worldviews can differ significantly. Kant of course plays a key role in the analysis, and his insights about the ‘liberal peace’ provide, until today, a crucial intellectual foundation for those arguing in favor of democracy promotion.

Schweller offers a potent critique of democracy promotion by arguing that even in an ideal world full of democracies and perfectly equally distributed resources, the underlying causes of war remain firmly in place. Smith’s chapter provides a scathing assessment of US democracy promotion. He argues that democracy promotion has been present throughout in US foreign policy makers’ rhetoric, but actual US foreign policy had usually little to do with noble Wilsonian ideas, for example in Latin America. G. John Ikenberry revisits some of these ideas about the “imperial elements” of today’s order in his book ‘Liberal Leviathan’, reviewed in a recent blog post.

In part two, which consists chapters by Tony Smith, G. John Ikenberry and Henry Nau, the authors look at democracy promotion as an American ‘Grand Strategy’. Smith sees democracy promotion as more than a fig leaf that merely exists to disguise true US national interests. Rather, democracy promotion is part of a greater American narrative, an important element of the United States’ “mission” in the world. US culture is thus an important factor in explaining democracy promotion. Ikenberry largely supports this claim in his chapter.

For those seeking to understand the future of democracy promotion and whether emerging powers will be willing and able to support democracy, Smith's chapter is highly relevant. The cultural factors Smith identifies are almost certainly unique to the United States, and it seems unlikely that Brazil or India will feel the urge to promote democracy. Exceptionalism is an important element of India's identity, but it certainly does not see itself as a 'city on the hill' that serves as referenec to others. On the other hand, one could argue that greater economic and political power may change emerging powers’ world views in the same way that the United States’ rise a century ago had a profound impact on the way US society sees its own role in the world. Henry Nau’s chapter is more concerned with the practical side of democracy promotion, and he argues that rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all approach, the US must adapt its strategy to the specific characteristics of the host country – a claim similar to that made by Steve Smith earlier.

In the third part, which consists of chapters by Ole Holsti, Thomas Carothers, Jason Ralph and Michael Cox, the authors look at how public opinion and domestic politics influence US democracy promotion. Holsti shows that many US citizens are wary of the practice. This is remarkable given that the year 2000 can, in many ways, be seen as a high point in global thinking about democracy promotion. James Traub’s Foreign Affairs article about the U.N.’s success in East Timor, for example, symbolized the West’s great confidence in its capacity to spread democracy. The experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan are likely to have reduced public support for the practice even further.

In addition, growing collective frustration with the United States’ political system may have begun to reduce confidence in the strengths of democracy itself. Thomas Carothers, the leading analyst of the US democracy promotion strategies, reiterates Nau’s arguments and says US democracy promoters are often unaware of the fact that a successful democracy does not necessarily have to look exactly like the United States’ political system. It is here in particular that emerging powers such as India and Brazil may be more pragmatic: Brazilian and Indian thinkers tend to much more aware of the flaws of their own democracy and perhaps more modest when speaking of their democracy as a model for others. In this part’s final chapter, Cox reflects on the Clinton administration’s democracy promotion record and confirms an idea confirmed by many other authors: Democracy promotion is far more than the idealist icing on an essentially realist cake. Rather, it is often an essential part of defending US nationalist interest.

The fourth and final chapter provides insights into different regions’ experience with US democracy promotion. Peter Rutland points to the deep flaws in the United States’ decision to push for both democratization and the introduction of capitalism in Russia at the same time, thus contributing to the failure of both. In the same way, Georg Sorensen is highly critical of US efforts to promote democracy in Africa. William Robinson and Barry Gills provide the book’s most frontal assault on US democracy promotion, arguing that it merely meant to serve US economic interests. The two last chapters in particular are very interesting in the light of the United States’ reaction to the recent revolutions in the Middle East.

None of the authors consider that the United States could one day ‘outsource’ democracy promotion to other actors such as Brazil or India. Still, this book is required reading for all those who seek to understand the future of democracy promotion in a Post-Western Word.

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Can India and China resolve their differences?

2012 May 10
by Oliver Stuenkel

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Whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, the chance for conflict greatly increases as their growing spheres of influence quickly overlap - one of the main reason why Europe's history is full of bloody wars. This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a rising India begin to claim influence over the same regions. After India and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore oil in the South China Sea, an aggressive op-ed in The Global Times (a Chinese newspaper) recently accused India of "poking its nose where it does not belong." China is busy creating alliances with India's neighbors, while India has - to China's dismay - begun to strengthen ties with Japan, Australia, and the United States. While trade between India and China is growing, this alone may not be enough to prevent an escalation, as World War I made abundantly clear. Similar to today's China and India, Imperial Germany felt "encircled" - a word analysts from both China and India use with growing frequency.

Today, a group of three students in my class on foreign policy presented a briefing to a fictitious 41-year old recently named Indian Prime Minister who seeks to reassess India's China policy. The students developed a series of ideas about what could be done to solve one of the most urgent problems that weigh on the relationship, namely the simmering border conflicts. Their initial historic analysis made clear that there are many dimensions and different actors involved, making the question of Arunchal Pradesh one of the most complex riddles of our time. Therefore, at the outset, they argued there was simply no realistic solution, and all options presented would be highly improbable.

Still, the group argued that potential benefits of rapprochement - ranging from trade to security cooperation to seeking common positions in multilateral settings - were simply too great to ignore, creating a great incentive to great a stronger partnership between India and China.

One of the noteworthy options they presented to get there was a 'grand bargain', in which India would cede Arunchal Pradesh to China, thus fully recognizing China's control over Tibet, against Beijing's acceptance that Jammu and Kashmir is de fact part of India (and cede the territories there occupied by China). In addition, China would have to terminate all Kashmir-related support to Pakistan and remain neutral in any possible conflict over Kashmir between Pakistan and India. This would include the removal of about 10,000 Chinese troops from Pakistan's "Northern Areas" (also known as Gilgit-Baltistan).

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The underlying rationale of this proposal is that Arunchal Pradesh has less strategic value for India while the possibility of gaining control over larger swaths of Jammu and Kashmir has important geopolitical implications.

Several students opposed this recommendation and argued that India should invest more in its military capacity and never give up its control over Arunchal Pradesh. One important reason would be that other restive regions in India could increase their pressure on New Delhi to secede. The opposition could depict the new government ask weak in the face of China. Others pointed out that China would only feel emboldened, militarize the border further and soon claim another chunk of Indian territory. Some argued that it would be difficult to monitor China's promise to stay out of Kahsmir. Finally, a student said that since India could expect to grow faster over the coming decades and eventually overtake China, it should simply sit back and wait until the power gap between the two closes, thus acting from a stronger position. Some may question the usefulness of such highly speculative long-term projections. Despite their inaccuracy, they are a crucial element when seeking to answer the most important question of all: Is there enough space in Asia for two superpowers?

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No single proposal will ever convince anyone, and China would indeed be highly unlikely to accept having its activities in Pakistan curtailed by India, especially given that Pakistan figures prominently in China's strategy to strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean.

While these proposals may seem unrealistic to many (in fact, they are by definition), these types of activities are extremely useful to stimulate the debate and help young scholars deal with situations some of them are likely to encounter as policy makers later in their career. Until then, perhaps, India and China will have overcome their differences.

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Debate: Como a imigração mudará o Brasil

2012 May 10
by Oliver Stuenkel

Inscrições no link http://goo.gl/t9KUy

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Global Conversations: Emerging powers’ foreign policies

2012 May 10
by Oliver Stuenkel

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http://www.munkschool.utoronto.ca/mga/globalconversations/?p=episode&name=2012-05-08_global_conversations_episode_4.m4a

Global Conversations Episode 4

Global Conversations Episode 4 highlights emerging issues regarding cyber security, as portrayed by Master of Global Affairs student Evan Rankin. Episode 4 also features an interview with Dr. Oliver Stuenkel, an expert on emerging global powers.

Download podcast here.

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Como a imigração mudará o Brasil

2012 May 9
by Oliver Stuenkel
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Por décadas, ir para o exterior era visto como o maior sonho possível para muitos jovens brasileiros. “Lá fora” seria o melhor lugar para viver. Por isso, pode ser desconcertante ver um número crescente de jovens estrangeiros altamente qualificados, e que poderiam encontrar emprego em qualquer canto do mundo, chegarem e se instalarem no Brasil. Mas o número de estrangeiros - qualificados e não-qualificados - vindo ao Brasil está aumentando, atraídos pelo crescimento econômico inédito, os salários competitivos e uma sociedade mais ocidentalizada do que qualquer outra entre os países dos BRICS.

Do ponto de vista histórico, e de modo semelhante ao caso dos Estados Unidos, o Brasil é um país construído através do trabalho árduo de imigrantes europeus e escravos africanos. O Brasil é, portanto, uma verdadeira nação imigrante, e sua história rica em ondas recorrentes de imigração, vindas de lugares tão diversos como Portugal, África, Itália, Alemanha, Polônia e Japão, tornaram o país um caldeirão étnica e culturalmente diversificado, que moldou sua identidade nacional. Nos cursos que leciono atualmente, os nomes de meus alunos indicam ancestrais japoneses, húngaros, portugueses, italianos, alemães, chineses, libaneses e espanhóis, o que confere um grau de diversidade comparável com o de qualquer grande universidade europeia ou norteamericana.

Mas, apesar do papel importante que a imigração desempenhou ao longo da história do Brasil, o país já não recebe estrangeiros com a mesma facilidade com que fazem outros países. Poucos imigrantes chegaram ao Brasil depois de 1990. Aos olhos de visitantes, o país parece, hoje, relativamente isolado do resto do mundo. Enquanto os Estados Unidos foram como um imã para imigrantes ao longo da segunda metade do século 20, com sua economia dinâmica e sua sociedade liberal, propícia à mobilidade, a economia do Brasil entrou em estagnação, e seu governo o afundou no isolamento com seu modelo de substituição de importações durante a Guerra Fria. A política de imigração do Brasil dificulta o trabalho de estrangeiros no país. Enquanto os imigrantes nos Estados Unidos podem eventualmente se tornar cidadãos americanos, a obtenção da cidadania brasileira é difícil. Isto é ainda mais paradoxal quando se considera que a falta de trabalhadores qualificados é um dos maiores obstáculos a impedir o Brasil de sustentar seu crescimento ao longo prazo.

Contudo, nem mesmo regras complicadas de imigração podem desfazer o fato de que o recente milagre econômico do Brasil atrai um número crescente de imigrantes qualificados de todas as partes do globo. O idioma representa uma barreira significativa, já que a fluência em português é absolutamente necessária para encontrar trabalho no Brasil. Mas também oferece uma oportunidade única para os estrangeiros dispostos a aprenderem a língua, já que empresas brasileiras buscam desesperadamente engenheiros, especialistas em tecnologia da informação e profissionais da área de finanças que falem tanto português quanto inglês. Como apareceu recentemente na The Economist, o Brasil é um dos únicos países com um déficit de doutorados. A cultura é, também, importante. Um engenheiro europeu ou americano com ofertas de emprego de empresas em São Paulo, Dubai, Déli ou Pequim, como perspectivas financeiras e de carreiras semelhantes, pode optar pelo Brasil por ser o país de maior facilidade de integração. O número de estrangeiros em busca de emprego no Brasil está crescendo, e deve aumentar ainda mais. Não se passa sequer uma semana sem que amigos ou amigos de amigos da Itália, de Portugal, da Grécia ou dos Estados Unidos perguntem sobre oportunidades de emprego no Brasil.

O número crescente de pessoas do exterior em busca de emprego mudará a forma como o Brasil se relaciona com estrangeiros. Visitantes do exterior são bem quistos no Brasil, pois são poucos, ricos e não costumam ficar por muito tempo. No futuro, os imigrantes virão em maiores números, serão relativamente pobres, e terão a intenção de se instalar no Brasil. Tanto trabalhadores qualificados quanto não qualificados procurarão se beneficiar da ascensão do Brasil. Empregadas domésticas nas grandes cidades do Brasil já não virão mais das áreas rurais pobres do país, e sim da Argentina, do Paraguai e possivelmente de Portugal e da Espanha. Embora possa levar décadas para que imigração ao Brasil chegue às proporções conhecidas na Europa, resta a ver quão bem o Brasil lidaria com uma nova onda de imigração, e os desafios que a acompanham. Por exemplo, as escolas públicas brasileiras oferecem poucas aulas adicionais para ajudar estudantes que não têm fluência em português a alcançarem o nível do resto da turma. A imigração ilegal já é um problema em São Paulo, mas ainda não faz parte do debate público. Mas apesar de todas as dificuldades, o passado do Brasil deve ajudá-lo a enfrentar os desafios inerentes à imigração, e a valorizar o seu novo papel como uma terra de oportunidades e a destinação de imigrantes de todas as partes do mundo.

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Na segunda-feira, 14 de maio às 10h30, o Centro de Relações Internacionais, sediado no CPDOC da FGV em São Paulo convida para um debate sobre como a imigração mudará o Brasil. Apresentará Paulo Sergio de Almeida, Presidente do Conselho Nacional de Imigração (CNIg), órgão do Ministério do Trabalho encarregado de formular a política brasileira de imigração. Participarão também a Profa. Marijane Lisboa, do Dep. de Sociologia da PUC-SP e a Profa. Deisy Ventura do Instituto de Relações Internacionais da USP.

Inscrições no link http://goo.gl/t9KUy
 

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