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Speaker-Ryan-with-Trump-and-Pence

O governo Donald Trump será bom para o Brasil? (Folha de São Paulo)

 

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2017/01/1851884-o-governo-donald-trump-sera-bom-para-o-brasil-nao.shtml

POPULISTA ENCORAJADOS

Por OLIVER STUENKEL 

O Brasil tem passado longe do radar da política externa norte-americana nos últimos anos, e é pouco provável que isso mude com Donald Trump.

Ao contrário de chineses, muçulmanos e mexicanos, escolhidos pelo novo presidente como bodes expiatórios para alimentar o medo e manter elevado grau de polarização entre os eleitores estadunidenses –prática comum dos populistas– o Brasil não será prioridade.

Apesar disso, tudo indica que o impacto da presidência Trump para o Brasil será negativo. Há quatro razões principais: o fechamento comercial dos EUA, o provável aumento da taxa de juros pelo Fed (banco central americano), a intensificação de tensões geopolíticas e o enfraquecimento do modelo democrático no mundo.

Em primeiro lugar, …

Putin-and-Trump

Trump’s inauguration ushers in 2017, the year of the strongman

   

https://theconversation.com/trumps-inauguration-ushers-in-2017-the-year-of-the-strongman-70846

By Oliver Stuenkel

Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 exemplifies a phenomenon that is likely to shape global politics for years to come: the rise of the strongman.

The term is broadly used to describe law-and-order candidates with authoritarian tendencies who weaken institutions and concentrate power in the executive. As leaders, they tend to reject pluralism (the idea that political power is distributed among many institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental). Instead, they often claim to be the exclusive representatives of “the people”.

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro are classic strongmen. Calling their opponents “unpatriotic” and implying they are guided by “foreign interests”, these politicians consistently articulate a moral form of anti-pluralism.…

cybersecurity

Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know

Review: Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know. By P.W. Singer and Allan Friedman. Oxford University Press; 1 edition (January 3, 2014) U$ 15.37 (paperback, amazon.com)

New communication technologies erode hierarchies, collapse time and distance, and empower networks. That will have a massive impact on international relations, and cybersecurity will be a key element of foreign policy making in the coming decades. Issues that define cybersecurity today -- such as incident response, the problem of attribution, overlapping investigative and legal authorities, public-private partnerships, and the necessity of international cooperation — are much-discussed in Foreign Ministries across the world.

Indeed, few topics matter more for international affairs today than cybersecurity, and we can safely assume that its importance will grow …

saiia-1

Book Launch in Johannesburg: Post-Western World

 

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

cordially invites you to a Book Launch

by

Prof. Oliver Della Costa Stuenkel Associate Professor of International Relations, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in São Paulo

on

Post-Western World With the United States' superpower status rivalled by a rising China and emerging powers like India and Brazil playing a growing role in international affairs, the global balance of power is shifting. But what does this mean for the future of the international order? Will China dominate the 21st Century? Will the so-called BRICS prove to be a disruptive force in global affairs? Are we headed towards a world marked by frequent strife, or will the end of Western dominance make the world …

glenny-1

Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio

 

Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio. By Misha Glenny. Knopf (February 9, 2016); 338 pages U$15,00 (Kindle, amazon.com

As the first week of 2017 has seen repeated bloodshed in an escalating feud between Brazil's biggest drug gangs, the country's public debate again focuses on Brazil's medieval prison system, its controversial drug policies and the growing power of its criminal gangs. While largely seen as a domestic challenge, it cannot be understood without its international dimension, for the vast majority of cocaine (the gangs' most important source of income) comes from Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. It may not be a coincidence that both of the terrible prison riots took place in regions bordering Venezuela, a failed state awash …

maduro1

É a hora de um pacto para salvar a Venezuela (EL PAÍS)

 

Essa solução seria profundamente injusta, pois não exigiria uma prestação de contas dos governantes atuais. No entanto, é pragmática

Há exatamente um ano, muitos venezuelanos tinham a esperança de que 2016 traria mudanças ao país. A oposição havia acabado de celebrar uma vitória histórica nas eleições parlamentares em dezembro e, apesar das ameaças de que não reconheceria os resultados, Nicolás Maduro proferiu, na noite das eleições, as palavras de um verdadeiro estadista: “Na política, às vezes você ganha, às vezes você perde”. Desde então, no entanto, as coisas só pioraram para o país das maiores reservas de petróleo já descobertas do mundo. Diante de um parlamento privado de seus poderes, o judiciário controlado pelo presidente e, acima de tudo, …

corruptos

No More Odebrechts: Three Steps to Reduce Graft in Latin America (Americas Quarterly)

 

http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/no-more-odebrechts-three-steps-reduce-graft-latin-america

The revelations of years of immense and systemic bribe payments to policymakers across Latin America by engineering and construction conglomerate Odebrecht are an unmitigated disaster for Brazil – and its foreign policy of the last decade and a half.

The internationalization of Brazilian capitalism – that is, the government’s strategy of boosting Brazil’s influence by supporting the activities of its large companies abroad – was a key pillar of regional foreign policy starting in the mid-2000s. This policy allowed Brazil not only to achieve unprecedented visibility and access from Buenos Aires to Panama City, but also to establish a powerful narrative about its benign, stabilizing and modernizing impact abroad. Yet even at this early stage of investigations, it …

Shanghai

Die postwestliche Ordnung

 

Die BRICS-Staaten bauen an einer neuen Weltordnung. Das muss kein Grund zur Sorge sein.

Von Oliver Stuenkel | 04.01.2017

http://www.ipg-journal.de/kommentar/artikel/die-postwestliche-ordnung-1775/

Wir sind Zeugen einer historischen Machtverschiebung vom Westen nach Asien. Die Folgen davon sind in der globalen Politik immer stärker zu spüren. Der Tag, an dem China die Vereinigten Staaten als die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt ablöst, naht, und der Westen verliert langsam die Fähigkeit, die globale Agenda zu bestimmen. An diese westliche Dominanz haben wir uns so sehr gewöhnt, dass sie vielen ganz selbstverständlich erscheint. Das macht es schwer, sich vorzustellen, wie wir ohne sie auskommen können.

Doch historisch gesehen leben wir in einem höchst ungewöhnlichen Zeitfenster. Für rund zwei Jahrhunderte ermöglichte eine extreme Konzentration der Wirtschaftsmacht dem …