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G-20 reúne líderes das maiores economias mundiais em Hamburgo, na Alemanha

Começa nesta sexta-feira em Hamburgo, na Alemanha, o encontro do G-20, com os líderes das principais potências mundiais. As expectativas para o evento giram em torno, principalmente, das discussões sobre a crise migratória e o embate dos Estados Unidos com a Coreia do Norte. O professor de relações internacionais da FGV, Oliver Stuenkel, explicou o contexto do evento em entrevista à apresentadora Patricia Rocha. Confira a entrevista aqui.

Ler também:

Venezuela: não há solução sem Pequim (EL PAÍS)

Entrevista com a editora Paz e Terra: BRICS e o Futuro da Ordem Global

Por que o Brasil está certo ao buscar adesão à OCDE (EL PAÍS)

Venezuela’s problems go far beyond chavismo

Diosdado Cabello and Nicolas Maduro 

Many international analysts suggest not only that Venezuela's President Maduro is about to fall, but also that the end of chavismo will inevitably be the starting point of a process of economic and political recovery of the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves. Both are wrong. A closer analysis reveals that Maduro can be expected to remain in power for now -- and the greatest threat to his rule does not come from the political opposition, but from the armed forces. Secondly, it is an excessively optimistic view based on a simplistic assessment of a country that whose ailments are far more numerous and complex than chavismo alone. This should not be understood …

Brazil’s no-show at the G20

Better days: Brazil's President Lula at the G20 Summit in 2009, in Pittsburgh

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Observation: Two days after the publication of this blog post, President Temer changed his mind and announced that he would, in fact, participate in this year's G20 summit. I have spoken about his decision with Jornal do Brasil, Radio France Internationale and Deutsche Welle.

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Last week, news emerged that Brazil's President Michel Temer would stay away from the upcoming G20 summit, due to take place in Hamburg from July 7-8. The decision can be attributed to two factors. First of all, the political situation in Brasília has reached a degree of instability that traveling for several days poses a risk to the president, who is …

Bolivia’s Democracy at Risk: What Role for External Actors?

 

OLIVER DELLA COSTA STUENKEL Article June 20, 2017

http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/06/20/bolivia-s-democracy-at-risk-what-role-for-external-actors-pub-71301

This publication is from Carnegie’s Rising Democracies Network.

Bolivia’s first indigenous president, Evo Morales, appears to be moving in a more authoritarian direction. Neighboring countries are currently unable to play a constructive role in preventing this from happening.

The country presents a test case for Latin American states’ commitment to protect democracy in the region. They will need to coordinate more effectively through Latin American regional bodies if they are to pass this test.

DEMOCRACY CHALLENGED

The outlook for Bolivia’s democracy is bleak, with considerable potential for a return to political instability.

Until recently, Evo Morales was hailed as an example of a progressive and responsible left-wing leader in …

Venezuela: não há solução sem Pequim (EL PAÍS)

 

http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2017/06/13/opinion/1497316118_825241.html

Depois de anos de tentativas frustradas, fica evidente que atores regionais não têm a capacidade de ajudar a Venezuela a sair do fundo do poço. A crise política no país é mais profunda e complexa hoje do que em 2003, quando o grupo “Amigos da Venezuela”, composto por vários países latino-americanos, foi crucial para restabelecer o diálogo entre o governo e a oposição. Além disso, o vácuo de poder na América do Sul, acima de tudo devido à instabilidade política no Brasil, torna qualquer estratégia coordenada implausível.

Uma questão negligenciada nesse contexto é o papel fundamental da China, responsável por quase 40% do crescimento global em 2016. Há anos, Pequim se tornou o maior investidor e credor da …

Venezuela: No Solution Without Beijing

BY OLIVER STUENKEL | JUNE 5, 2017 China has invested more than $60 billion, giving it a huge stake in Maduro’s survival.

http://americasquarterly.org/content/venezuela-no-solution-without-beijing

For years, governments across the hemisphere have failed to halt Venezuela’s slow descent into strife-riven autocracy. This is partly because their discussions have overlooked an important element: Beijing’s key role as President Nicolás Maduro’s largest and most stalwart financial supporter. China as a political actor can no longer be left out of the search for solutions to Venezuela’s profound political and humanitarian crisis.

At a time when the government in Caracas is slowly turning into a pariah regime and several leading Venezuelan officials can no longer travel abroad due to international drug trafficking charges, Chinese investments have …

China’s Asian Dream

 

Book Review: China's Asian Dream. By Tom Miller. Zed Books, 2017.  256 pages. $21.16 (kindle, amazon.com)

Four years ago, at a talk at Nazarbayev University in Astana, Kazakhstan, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced that China would fund a New Silk Road Economic Belt (usually referred to as OBOR) across Eurasia to connect China with Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia. Media estimates investment in OBOR anywhere in between $800 billion and $1 trillion, covering 890 projects in over 60 partner countries — a truly monumental initiative. Several commentators have made parallels between OBOR and the U.S - sponsored Marshall Plan that aided in the reconstruction of postwar Europe. Indeed, as Tom Miller points out in his book …