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Trump abre janela de oportunidade para maior integração na América Latina (EL PAÍS)

 

Um dos principais obstáculos à maior integração regional é a divisão existente há anos na América Latina entre a Aliança do Pacífico e o Mercosul.

http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2017/02/13/opinion/1487024327_191535.html

É provável que Donald Trump rompa o consenso articulado 70 anos atrás de que os Estados Unidos devem atuar como âncora do sistema internacional por meio da promoção de normas globais e garantias de segurança a seus aliados. Essa estratégia revisionista de Trump poderá levar à incerteza e à instabilidade na Europa, Ásia e Oriente Médio, onde o recuo dos EUA teria profundas implicações geopolíticas.

No caso da América Latina, as consequências são em grande parte restritas ao âmbito econômico. O México deverá ser o mais afetado pela abordagem "America First" de Trump. …

french-2

China’s Second Continent: How a million migrants are building a new empire in Africa

 

Review: China's Second Continent: How a million migrants are building a new empire in Africa. By Howard French. Vintage; Reprint edition (February 3, 2015). 304 pages. U$ 16.50 (Kindle, amazon.com)  

China's growing influence in Africa is, without a doubt, the most important event in African history since the end of the Cold War. Given the rapidity of events, our understanding of this complex phenomenon is still limited, and basic questions remain unanswered: What is Beijing's strategy and motivation on the continent? Do Africans benefit from Chinese investments? Will China spur economic development or deindustrialization? Will China integrate into today's aid regime, or will it disregard established structures such as the DAC, the Paris Declaration and the Working Party …

pena-temer-top

With NAFTA’s Future Uncertain, Brazil Should Reach Out to Mexico (Americas Quarterly)

 

By Oliver Stuenkel

http://americasquarterly.org/content/naftas-future-uncertain-brazil-should-reach-out-mexico

With President Donald Trump threatening to upend the U.S.’ economic relationship with Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto is looking for new friends. The Mexican president may not have given up hope of mending ties with Washington, but Trump’s arrival has given fresh urgency to Mexico’s search for new sources of foreign investment and new trade partners. That has so far meant a particular focus on Europe and Asia; in a sign of things to come, Mexico on Feb. 1 announced a $212 million deal to assemble Chinese cars in the central state of Hidalgo.

But the new reality facing Mexico also offers an opportunity to rethink ties with Brazil and strengthen a bilateral relationship that has …

strongmen

2017 ou l’avènement de l’Homme fort

 

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY SARAH ROGERS/THE DAILY BEAST

https://theconversation.com/2017-ou-lavenement-de-lhomme-fort-71507

OLIVER STUENKEL 

L’investiture de Donald Trump vendredi 20 janvier illustre parfaitement l’ampleur d’un phénomène qui pourrait bien donner le ton à la politique internationale dans les années à venir : la montée en puissance de l’Homme fort.

Le terme est utilisé de façon assez générale pour décrire les candidats au profil autoritaire, très portés sur l’ordre et la sécurité, déterminés à affaiblir les institutions et à concentrer le pouvoir dans l’exécutif.

Ces dirigeants ont tendance à rejeter le pluralisme, soit l’idée même que le pouvoir politique est distribué entre plusieurs acteurs, gouvernementaux et non-gouvernementaux. À la place, ils se proclament souvent comme seuls et uniques représentants du « peuple ».…

Speaker-Ryan-with-Trump-and-Pence

O governo Donald Trump será bom para o Brasil? (Folha de São Paulo)

 

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2017/01/1851884-o-governo-donald-trump-sera-bom-para-o-brasil-nao.shtml

POPULISTA ENCORAJADOS

Por OLIVER STUENKEL 

O Brasil tem passado longe do radar da política externa norte-americana nos últimos anos, e é pouco provável que isso mude com Donald Trump.

Ao contrário de chineses, muçulmanos e mexicanos, escolhidos pelo novo presidente como bodes expiatórios para alimentar o medo e manter elevado grau de polarização entre os eleitores estadunidenses –prática comum dos populistas– o Brasil não será prioridade.

Apesar disso, tudo indica que o impacto da presidência Trump para o Brasil será negativo. Há quatro razões principais: o fechamento comercial dos EUA, o provável aumento da taxa de juros pelo Fed (banco central americano), a intensificação de tensões geopolíticas e o enfraquecimento do modelo democrático no mundo.

Em primeiro lugar, …

Putin-and-Trump

Trump’s inauguration ushers in 2017, the year of the strongman

   

https://theconversation.com/trumps-inauguration-ushers-in-2017-the-year-of-the-strongman-70846

By Oliver Stuenkel

Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 exemplifies a phenomenon that is likely to shape global politics for years to come: the rise of the strongman.

The term is broadly used to describe law-and-order candidates with authoritarian tendencies who weaken institutions and concentrate power in the executive. As leaders, they tend to reject pluralism (the idea that political power is distributed among many institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental). Instead, they often claim to be the exclusive representatives of “the people”.

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro are classic strongmen. Calling their opponents “unpatriotic” and implying they are guided by “foreign interests”, these politicians consistently articulate a moral form of anti-pluralism.…

cybersecurity

Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know

Review: Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know. By P.W. Singer and Allan Friedman. Oxford University Press; 1 edition (January 3, 2014) U$ 15.37 (paperback, amazon.com)

New communication technologies erode hierarchies, collapse time and distance, and empower networks. That will have a massive impact on international relations, and cybersecurity will be a key element of foreign policy making in the coming decades. Issues that define cybersecurity today -- such as incident response, the problem of attribution, overlapping investigative and legal authorities, public-private partnerships, and the necessity of international cooperation — are much-discussed in Foreign Ministries across the world.

Indeed, few topics matter more for international affairs today than cybersecurity, and we can safely assume that its importance will grow …

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Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio

 

Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio. By Misha Glenny. Knopf (February 9, 2016); 338 pages U$15,00 (Kindle, amazon.com

As the first week of 2017 has seen repeated bloodshed in an escalating feud between Brazil's biggest drug gangs, the country's public debate again focuses on Brazil's medieval prison system, its controversial drug policies and the growing power of its criminal gangs. While largely seen as a domestic challenge, it cannot be understood without its international dimension, for the vast majority of cocaine (the gangs' most important source of income) comes from Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. It may not be a coincidence that both of the terrible prison riots took place in regions bordering Venezuela, a failed state awash …