
Western nations, and the United States in particular, are proud of the global order they have created after World War II. Rightly so: for the past 65 years, the Western World Order has provided great political stability, unknown prosperity and low levels of conflict, and it successfully helped prevent nuclear war. Major political changes such as the demise of the Soviet Union, then the world’s second most powerful country, German reunification and America’s temporary ‘unipolar moment’ were all successfully absorbed by the system, providing continued predictability amid economic growth and growing welfare for humanity (the recent economic crisis does not change this overall assessment). It is these highly successful institutions, created by visionary leaders seeking to avoid past bloodshed by extrapolating Western institutions internationally, that make up the Western World Order. While liberal thinkers had begun to articulate the basic outline of such a system (made up of a dense web of institutions and treaties) centuries earlier, it was only after 1945 that this system actually came to pass, putting a revolutionary idea into practice that would change the nature of international relations forever.
Yet since the end of the Cold War, a much more fundamental transformation is taking place, and power is shifting from the United States and Europe to emerging powers such as China, India and Brazil. For the first time since the creation of the Western World Order, power will be with those who did not actively participate in the creation of the rules that undergird the system. There is a growing awareness that the West is losing the capacity to control global affairs, tackle challenges or define the international agenda.
This inevitable trend will alter the nature of global order, and the big question is how this will play out - what will the 'Post-Western World' look like? The critical question that fundamentally shapes analysts' predictions is how strongly the system depends on its creators, particularly the United States. A powerful group argues that the system cannot function without a strong global manager. In a recent article in Foreign Policy ("After America"), Zbigniew Bezezinski, national security advisor under U.S. President Carter and respected foreign policy analyst, argues that
no single power will be ready (...) to exercise the role that the world (...) expected the United States to play: the leader of a new, globally cooperative world order. More probable would be a protracted phase of rather inconclusive realignments of both global and regional power, with no grand winners and many more losers, in a setting of international uncertainty and even of potentially fatal risks to global well-being. Rather than a world where dreams of democracy flourish, a Hobbesian world of enhanced national security based on varying fusions of authoritarianism, nationalism, and religion could ensue.
Identifying the United States as an 'indispensable nation' to uphold global order, he continues saying that
another consequence of American decline could be a corrosion of the generally cooperative management of the global commons -- shared interests such as sea lanes, space, cyberspace, and the environment, whose protection is imperative to the long-term growth of the global economy and the continuation of basic geopolitical stability. In almost every case, the potential absence of a constructive and influential U.S. role would fatally undermine the essential communality of the global commons because the superiority and ubiquity of American power creates order where there would normally be conflict.
This analysis curiously disregards the characteristics that made today's global order so great in the first place, severely underestimating the power of the system: As Princeton Professor John Ikenberry frequently argues, today’s institutions are "easy to join and hard to overturn". They are unique in that they are flexible and built on rules and democratic ideals – more importantly still, they have ‘intra-institutional mobility’, which means that member countries can rise - and wane – within the institutions, a process that will allow them to continue their existence and functioning even once their founding countries no longer play an important role. Rather than seeking power outside of the institutions, emerging powers regard institutions themselves as loci of concentrated power – and the capacity to work through them to influence others and gain legitimacy – as an essential vehicle to global power status.
When analyzing China's, India's and Brazil's foreign policy behavior (and disregarding confrontational rhetoric directed towards a domestic audience), we realize that Ikenberry is largely correct. For example, emerging powers are eager to assume responsibility in the IMF and the World Bank, they are emerging as important donors of development aid, and they proved to be constructive actors during G-20 summits.
The same is true regarding security, an area where the United States' decline is thought to have the worst consequences. Who would have thought only some years ago that the Chinese navy would be patrolling the Gulf of Aden in the global fight against piracy? Who would have imagined Brazilian soldiers maintaining order in Haiti? Thousands of Indian soldiers support peacekeeping missions in dangerous regions across the globe. With their growing economic interests, emerging powers' willingness and capacity to turn into the new managers of global order will grow further. And just as the global order survived disastrous decisions by the old guardian (e.g. the Iraq War), it will survive future mistakes made by China, India and Brazil. The West may not always be happy with decisions made in Beijing, New Delhi and Brasília, and new powers' management style will differ from that the world is used to. But the fundamental rules that undergird today's system - the best we have ever had - will be upheld. Rather then fretting about the end of its supremacy, the West should be proud that the system it invented will live on in the Post-Western World.
Center for International Relations - School of History and Social Sciences (CPDOC)
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo
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Think Tanks: The Global, Regional and National Dimension
James McGann (Foreign Policy Research Institute)
Rio de Janeiro, February 8th 2011
The Future of Democracay in the European Union
Philippe Schmitter (EUI)
Rio de Janeiro, February 21st 2011

Prof. Schmitter
Obama in Brazil
Matias Spektor, Geraldo Zahran, Cláudia Antunes, Luiz Augusto Castro Neves and Marcelo de Paiva Abreu
Rio de Janeiro, March 21st 2011
What's new in global order? The last decade in perspective
Walter Russell Mead (Stanford) and Josef Joffe (CFR)
Rio de Janeiro, April 7th 2011

Prof. Mead
Rio +20, The Future of Global Negotiations on Sustainable Development
Lawrence J. Gumbiner (US State Department)
Rio de Janeiro, April 29th 2011
What to make of the Arab Spring?
Monique Sochaczewski Goldfeld (FGV), Juliana Viggiano (FGV), Paulo Farah (USP)
São Paulo, May 11th 2011
Sleepwalking into the next crisis? Global Economic Governance since the crash
Ngaire Woods (Oxford)
Rio de Janeiro, May 18th 2011

Prof. Woods
Global Terrorism: Concepts and Consequences
India's Ambassador to Brazil B.S. Prakash
São Paulo, May 24th 2011

Ambassador Prakash
Iran's role as a regional power
Iran's Ambassador to Brazil Mohsen Shaterzadeh
São Paulo, June 2nd 2011
The future of global governance: Brazil and Canada in the Global Climate Change Regime
Kathryn Hochstetler (Waterloo), Eduardo Viola (UnB), Jason Blackstock (CIGI), Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho (USP), Paulo Artaxo (USP)
São Paulo, June 16th 2011
Beyond the Brics and De-centering the Western Order
Rahul Rao (SOAS) and Andrew Hurrell (Oxford)
Rio de Janeiro, July 18th 2011

Prof. Hurrell
Documentary "The Green Wave" and Debate
Flávio Azm Rassekh (UNITED4IRAN), Marcia Camargo (USP), Salem Nasser (FGV)
São Paulo, August 4th 2011
Brazil's Identity in the World
Rubens Ricupero, Luiz Werneck Vianna
Rio de Janeiro, August 22nd 2011
Public Diplomacy in the 21st century
Israel's Consul General in São Paulo Ilan Sztulman
São Paulo, August 29th 2011
Iran and Turkey: History and Present
Monique Sochaczewski, Murilo Sebe and Rafael Hatsu
Rio de Janeiro, August 30th 2011
2011 School on the History and Politics of the Arab World
Juan Cole (Michigan), Shadi Hamid (Brookings), Paulo Gabriel Hilu (UFF), Matias Spektor (FGV)
Rio de Janeiro, August 31st - September 2nd 2011

Prof. Cole
Brazil and India: Opportunities and Challenges in International Politics
André Fossa (Tata Consultancy Services no Brasil),
Walter Cruz (Marcopolo) Rakesh Vaidyanathan (iBRICS)
São Paulo, September 14th 2011
Debate with Eliezer Batista
Exhibition of documentary "Eliezer, o Engenheiro do Brasil"
Rio de Janeiro, September 26th 2011
Documentary "Budrus" and debate
Peter Demant (USP) and Salem Nasser (FGV)
São Paulo, September 29th 2011
The question of Palestine and the Future of the Middle East
Palestine's Ambassador to Brazil Ibrahim Alzeben
São Paulo, September 30th 2011
France and Current International Challenges
France's Ambassador to Brazil, Yves Saint-Geours and Ambassador Sérgio Amaral
São Paulo, October 4th 2011
The New World of UN Peace Operations
Thorsten Benner (GPPi)
São Paulo, October 6th 2011
Rio de Janeiro, October 10th 2011
Rising Powers and Global Challenges
Workshop organized by FGV and KAS
Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho (USP), Lydia Powell (Observer Research Foundation - New Delhi), Maxi Schoeman (University of Pretoria), Kai Michael Kenkel (PUC-Rio), André Mello E Souza (IPEA), Oliver Stuenkel (FGV), Swaran Singh (Jawaharlal Nehru University- New Delhi), Antônio Jorge Ramalho (UnB), Flavia de Campos Mello (PUC-SP) and Thorsten Benner (GPPi - Berlim)
São Paulo, October 6th and 7th 2011
Vietnam and the Postcolonial
Mark Bradley (Chicago University)
Rio de Janeiro, October 19th 2011

Prof. Bradley
Writing Global Human Rights History
Mark Bradley (Chicago University)
Rio de Janeiro, October 20th 2011
A Global History of Self-Determination
Bradley Simpson (Princeton University)
Rio de Janeiro, October 31st 2011
The Meaning of the "Third World" Today
Bradley Simpson (Princeton University)
Rio de Janeiro, November 1st 2011
Chinamerica or Clash of the Titans? Current Trends in US-China Relations
Ronald Pruessen (Munk School of Global Affairs, Toronto University)
Rio de Janeiro, November 8th 2011
The Cyberworld and International Relations
Misha Glenny
Rio de Janeiro, November 28th 2011
Nuclear Ambitions
Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Rio de Janeiro, November 30th 2011
Present and Future of Brazil - US relations
Julia Sweig (CFR)
Rio de Janeiro, December 1st 2011

Julia Sweig
Polarity and Status in International Relations
Randall Schweller (Ohio State)
Rio de Janeiro, December 6th 2011

Prof. Schweller
In this concise and engaging study, Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, provides a rigorous theoretical analysis of the potential implications of a zombie attack, thus filling an important gap in the International Relations literature. While the author concedes that the statistical probability of such an event are extremely difficult to determine but generally thought to be low, he rightly points out that contrary to vampires or witches, which rarely seek world domination, flesh- devouring zombies could in theory proliferate at high rates and “eradicate humanity from the face of earth”. The rise of the undead could thus have not only a potentially high human cost, but also profound systemic implications, requiring a coordinated international response from both state and non-state actors. Since zombies can easily cross borders, such a phenomenon would pose complex challenges to today’s global governance structures, similar to climate change, failed states or global epidemics.
Given the lack of scholarly consensus regarding the origin of zombies, Drezner rightly concludes that significant investments in prevention are unlikely to have much effect, aside from being prohibitively expensive – an argument of particular importance given the current global financial crisis. He therefore focuses on the effects of such a scenario, fleshing out what different theories of international relations predict would happen if zombies started to roam the earth.
Realists, who believe the global structure is anarchical, predict no or only unstable cooperation between states in the case of a zombie attack. Indeed, citing several zombie movies, Drezner shows that human beings rarely develop a coordinated response when threatened by zombies – the same may apply to states. Even if countries created an “anti-zombie alliance”, freeriding would, according to the author, almost certainly pose problems, and governments might commit to such an alliance in name only. This is highly debatable, as the author rejects the importance of Ronald Reagan’s conversation with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, during which the American President argued that an invasion by extraterrestrials which (just like a zombie attack) posed a common threat to humanity, would quickly end all differences between the United States and the Soviet Union (see below).
More concerned about negative consequences, Drezner points out that strong states could use the rise of zombies to “squelch irredentist movements, settle old scores, or subdue enduring rivals.” For example, China could occupy Taiwan (to isolate captured zombies, perhaps) and the Pakistani army would use zombies limping across the Line of Control (LoC) as a pretext to retaliate against India.
Liberals, on the other hand, who believe cooperation is more likely, face a particular dilemma. One of their major arguments is the ‘shadow of the future’: the longer one’s time horizon, the greater the rewards from mutual cooperation are in comparison to the fleeting benefits freeriding provides – yet zombies’ focus on short-term gains (eating human flesh) may be simply too strong to jointly coordinate policies. Against this, John Maynard Keynes argued that “in the long run, we are all dead”, which may mean that the ‘shadow of the future’ may in fact matter to the zombies. More research regarding zombies’ intellectual capabilities seems necessary to solve this puzzle. Drezner’s thoughts about the establishment of a “World Zombie Organization” are incisive – and such as organization may provide a unique opportunity for emerging powers such as China, India and Brazil to assume more global responsibility.
As the author points out, both neoconservatism and constructivism offer important ideas about how to deal with the zombie menace – yet neocon-inspired ‘shock and awe’ military campaigns may, despite a quick overthrow of an evil zombie regime, spread anti-human sentiments in occupied areas. Constructivists would argue that zombies are what humans make of it – raising important questions of human vs. zombie identity. Worryingly, Drezner suggests that once zombies are in the majority, they may cause a “norm cascade”, causing humans to adhere to the new standard behavior, a development with potentially serious implications for modern civilization.
Drezner’s analysis is sharp and convincing, yet some of his ideas could be developed much further. The author rightly notes that zombies’ carbon footprint is low – they usually walk (rather than drive) and consume only organic food. In an effort to reduce carbon emissions, governments could attempt to deliberately convert part of their population into zombies, thus reaping international praise and a ‘green reputation’ – yet such a policy would pose difficult ethical questions. Another important possibility the author does not consider here is that terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda could attempt to recruit and indoctrinate zombies, a strategy that would force governments to radically alter counter-terrorism strategies. Despite these shortcomings, Drezner’s book is a must-read for young international relations scholars, considering the vast attention this topic is likely to receive in the future.
Book Review: “Can the Elephant Dance?” by David M. Malone
David Malone’s book on Indian foreign policy, it must be said from the outset, is one of those rare works that combine beautiful writing and incisive analysis, packaged in a clear and coherent structure. As a consequence, “Can the Elephant Dance? is a true page-turner. The author, a scholar-diplomat known for his expertise on multilateral diplomacy, does not seek to establish a new theoretical framework, yet his sound analysis will prove extremely useful for both scholars and policy makers. In the introduction, Malone rightly notes that “much of Western literature on Indian foreign policy is self-referential: Westerners citing other Westerners, as if most work of value were written outside the region and countries involved.” His work therefore noticeably draws on Indian voices – established ones like Pratap Mehta, Raja Mohan and Siddarth Varadarajan, but also emerging ones such as Nitin Pai – giving valuable insight into the Indian domestic debate which has not yet gained the international projection it deserves.
The Brazilian reader will be disappointed early on when the author concedes that “India’s relations with Latin America (…) are not discussed at length (…), despite increasingly meaningful economic links with Brazil, Mexico and Chile.” This omission remains the norm, as I have written in previous reviews of books on Indian foreign policy (the three most recent ones being “India’s Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect”, edited by Sumit Ganguly, “India’s Foreign Policy: Old Problems, New Challenges”, edited by D. Suba Chandran and Jabin T. Jacob, and “Nation-building and foreign policy in India: An Identity-Strategy Conflict”, by Tobias F. Engelmeier). Yet nonetheless, Malone’s work should be read by Brazilian foreign policy makers and scholars, as India’s challenges are, in many ways, very similar to those Brazil confronts.
In particular, the chapter on India’s regional policy is illuminating, containing numerous lessons for Brazil. Malone writes that “the challenge for Indian diplomacy lies in convincing its neighbors that India is an opportunity, not a threat. Far from being besieged by India, they could provide their economies far greater opportunities for growth than if they were to rely on their domestic markets alone. (…) But has India done enough to make this option attractive? Judging from (….) its lackluster leadership of SAARC, the answer would have to be not yet.” He continues arguing that as “as the Indian economy is growing at a faster rate than the other South Asian countries”, India’s success will give rise to some difficulties, such as migration to India, creating demographic imbalances in certain parts of the country, giving rise to “friction between communities or simply rises in crime rates”. He suggests that if educational and employment opportunities are created in neighboring countries, they may act as domestic checks to mitigate pressure for migration. He also advocates the creation of a pan-South Asian energy grid that can work on the basis of electricity trading, further unifying the region. He concludes by arguing that “India cannot aspire to be a truly convincing ‘great power’ until it achieves a better handle on its region.” While South Asia differs strongly from South America in many aspects, India’s and Brazil’s roles are comparable in that they have global ambitions without effectively managing their region.
In a more general sense, Malone manages to provide the reader with a systematic understanding of India’s foreign policy challenges and constraints – arguably far more complex than those other emerging powers face. India’s political fragmentation, international security threats, the Kashmir issue, and a lack of regional economic integration and its energy deficits are unlikely to prevent India’s rise, but they nevertheless reduce the country’s ability to effectively pursue its national interest on a global scale. Regarding Sino-Indian ties, which several analysts have called the “contest of the 21st century”, Malone suggests that conflict at this point is highly unlikely (as both sides have too much to lose), but that a better dialogue between the two is necessary to avoid misunderstandings that could increase tension in the region.
The author’s decision to combine India-EU and India-Russia ties into one single chapter is debatable given the important differences between the two (Russia was a key partner during the Cold War). His assertion that the EU is not greatly respected in India is correct, largely because the EU’s largest members compete against each other in their efforts to strengthen ties with India, rather than acting as a cohesive bloc. Malone’s prediction that India-Russia ties are bound to be in ‘gentle decline’ is contentious. While the Western narrative about Russia is one of terminal decay, analysts and policy makers in India are much less pessimistic about Russia. Particularly in the context of China’s rise, there is considerable potential for stronger ties between Russia and India. As India will soon have to import 90% of its energy, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains volatile, Russia could once more turn into a more important partner for India.
India is a notoriously confusing country to study in foreign affairs, and even those who have visited many times often admit that it is virtually impossible to predict India’s behavior on the international stage. Still, Malone’s analysis greatly contributes to a better understanding of South Asia’s giant.
As Brazil turns into 6th largest economy, unfamiliar challenges loom
As a report earlier this week by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) noted, Brazil has just overtaken the UK as the world's sixth largest economy. Merely one year ago, it displaced Italy from the seventh spot, after ranking a distant 10th in 2002. Brazil's finance minister, Guido Mantega, then announced that he expected to Brazil to overtake France by 2015 before closing in on Germany's GDP by the end of the decade, predicting that the South American giant would grow twice as fast as Europe's economies over the years to come.
The reaction in Brazil was more cautious than triumphant. Several analysts pointed out that the country faced an great amount of complex challenges, ranging from education to infrastructure, fearing that the good news could weaken the zeal to implement important reforms. Fernando Rodrigues of Folha de São Paulo, Brazil's leading newspaper, argued in an editorial that the 6th position mattered little since Brazilians still lacked 'civilized manners', something that had hardly changed since the economy took off in the 1990s. Regarding per capita GDP, average schooling and all other social indicators, the commentators stressed, Brazil still trails any European country by a wide margin, and the government's inability to deal with growth killers such as high taxes, little incentives to innovate, and a kafkaesque bureaucracy that "suffocated entrepreneurialism in the cradle" gives little reason to be hopeful.
This reaction may seem somewhat surprising to outsiders, yet it can be explained by the numerous disappointments Brazilians have experienced over the past decades. I usually ask my international students to read President Sarney's Foreign Affairs article "A President's Story" of 1986 to show them that this is by no means the first time optimism was rife in a country with all the potential to become an economic powerhouse - Sarney's policies - two 'Cruzado Plans' (1986), the 'Bresser Plan' (1987), the 'Rice and Beans Plan' (1988) and the 'Summer Plan' (1989) - all meant to stabilize the economy, filled Brazilians with hopes, only to see them quickly dashed.
While Fernando Henrique Cardoso's 'Real Plan', which finally did the trick and laid the groundwork for economic growth and stability, now lies 18 years in the past, the memory of economic hardship continues to shape Brazil's public opinion. A Brazilian friend of mine, who had participated in a recent conference organized by The Economist in São Paulo, fumed when she told me how 'absurdly exuberant' and 'uncritical' the 'gringo presenters' had characterized Brazil's situation.
There is some truth to that claim. The West is, understandably, anxious to see democratic and nonthreatening Brazil succeed and provide a counterexample to rising China. A similar logic applies to India, which in general is seen as a less frightening power than China. This can lead to a somewhat overly optimistic coverage of Brazil. Yet it would be wrong to describe The Economist's (now increasingly frequent) articles on Brazil as biased - for example, an astute analysis of Brazilian politics in late November correctly argued that Rousseff needed to make "radical changes" to the country's rotten "political-patronage system" to make real progress - hardly a flattering thing to say.
More importantly, Brazilian society will have to get used to the fact that being part of the world's top league will bring unknown challenges with it. For example, given recent growth, all donors have terminated development aid projects in Brazil, and the country will increasingly be expected to help others overcome poverty. A potential regional backlash as a reaction to its rise, which I have written about before, comes to mind as well. In addition, a growing number of immigrants will come to Brazil to seek jobs (see my article "How immigration will change Brazil"). While the arrival of qualified immigrants from other rich countries may not require great adaptation, the arrival of economic refugees, most of them unskilled, is likely to force Brazilians to rethink their place in the world. As Tom Phillips of The Guardian recently wrote:
Nearly two years after their homeland was devastated by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, several thousand Haitians are already thought to have made the pilgrimage through Bolivia, Peru or Colombia into Brazil in search of work. New groups are reportedly arriving each weekend. But while some are able to secure legal documents and find employment, many end up stranded in tiny border towns such as Brasiléia, now home to at least 724 Haitians out of a total population of around 20,000.
Addressing Brazil's senate on Monday, Aníbal Diniz, a senator from President Dilma Rousseff's Workers' party (PT), said: "We are facing an extremely serious problem. The number of Haitians leaving Haiti for Brazil rises every day because they have no chances in their country."
The arrival of growing numbers of refugees and economic migrants will force the government to learn to better receive and integrate foreigners, something it never had to do before. Those who hope that the Haitians are an exception will be disappointed - news of economic growth in Brazil has long spread into all corners of the continent, turning it into a magnet for many in the region who seek a better life.
1. How immigration will change Brazil (April 10)
As we're stuck in traffic on Avenida Paulista, São Paulo's most famous boulevard, the cab driver interrupts our small talk, struggling to hide his disbelief and skepticism. "But why would you want to live here, in a third world country, rather than in Europe or America?" READ ARTICLE
2. Book review: “The future of Power” by Joseph Nye Jr. (July 26)
Joseph Nye, professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, is one of the world’s most influential foreign policy thinkers. This is partly due to his highly unusual decision to not only mingle with policy makers, but to actually hold important positions in US government at several moments of his career, thus gaining insights that provide him with a unique perspective. Nye has also had the courage to try to expand his readership beyond academia, and several of his concepts such as soft power and smart power have turned into household concepts – even if that achievement has earned him some criticism among fellow academics, who accuse him of overly targeting non-academic readers. READ REVIEW
3. China vs. India: Will the “contest of the 21st century” lead to war? (November 27)
Whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, the chance for conflict greatly increases as their growing spheres of influence quickly overlap - one of the main reason why Europe's history is full of bloody wars. This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a rising India begin to claim influence over the same regions. After India and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore oil in the South China Sea, an aggressive op-ed in The Global Times (a Chinese newspaper) accused India of "poking its nose where it does not belong." China is busy creating alliances with India's neighbors, while India has - to China's dismay - begun to strengthen ties with Japan, Australia, and the United States. While trade between India and China is growing, this alone may not be enough to prevent an escalation - as World War I made abundantly clear. Similar to today's China and India, Imperial Germany felt "encircled" - a word analysts from both China and India use with growing frequency. READ ARTICLE
4. India's Afghanistan Challenge (May 15)
Deploying Indian troops to stabilize the country is theoretically feasible, but risky as it may erode India’s image as a benign actor in Central Asia. In addition, it would feed Pakistan’s paranoia of encirclement, reducing chances to normalize ties with Islamabad. Despite India’s largesse, Afghans consider themselves closer to neighboring Pakistan, which can be ascribed to ethnic kinship: Almost 50% of Afghans are Pashtuns, like many Pakistanis who live along the Durand Line that separates the two nations. READ ARTICLE
5. Why South Africa’s BRICS entry is good for Brazil (April 30)
South Africa’s addition gives the BRICS a truly global dimension, thus increasing its representativeness, and lending further weight to its joint statements. It also ends Brazil’s geographic isolation. Previously, the group consisted of three geographically connected Asian countries plus a faraway member in South America. Relations between China, Russia and India, after all, are centuries old and marked by their proximity, contrary to ties with Brazil, which were insignificant before the end of the Cold War. With South Africa’s addition, this changes, and the group’s epicenter can no longer be said to lie in Asia. READ ARTICLE
6. New York Times: Fundação Getulio Vargas ranks third in the emerging world (December 2)
This week the New York Times published the results of a poll in which it asked hundreds of chief executives and chairmen to select the top universities from which they recruited. Ranked 98th in the world, the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) appears as the leading university in Latin America. It ranks 3rd in the BRICs (behind Fudan University and Tsinghua University, both in China), and 6th in the Southern Hemisphere (behind five Australian universities). The fact that a Brazilian institution is able to compete internationally reflects the country's growing influence. READ ARTICLE
In his new book, Parag Khanna, Director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation and author of “The Second World”, seeks to answer how we can deal with global challenges in a more effective way in the years to come. In merely 214 pages, Khanna covers a vast array of challenges – from climate change, nuclear proliferation, poverty, human rights to the Middle East Conflict to the disputes in Kashmir, Iran and Afghanistan. As a natural consequence, some of his analyses seem a bit rushed (for example, his thoughts on nuclear proliferation are limited to just a few pages). Yet Khanna’s aim is not to engage in profound historical analysis; rather, the book can be understood as a smart brainstorming session on how to tackle the world’s most urgent problems. Academics will frown at his approach as Khanna’s assertions are not based on empirical research, yet he is certainly courageous for approaching big issues in a sweeping way. READ REVIEW
Successfully assuming regional leadership would thus certainly have positive consequences for both countries. For example, if Brazil could convince all South American nations to unanimously support its candidacy for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, its chances to succeed would dramatically increase. The same applies to India. Yet the truth is that each country’s neighbors, notably Pakistan and Argentina, have been the most formidable obstacles in India’s and Brazil’s power project. Regional leadership, however, is difficult, costly, and full of risks. Brazil’s accommodating policy towards Venezuela, for example, has been sharply criticized, but taking a tougher stance towards autocratic leaders such as Hugo Chavez means running the risk of being called an imperialist in the region. India’s ability to influence the region is severely hampered by the presence of China. Lashing out against Myanmar’s junta is thus only likely to drive Rangoon deeper into China’s arms, an argument that is increasingly true for Venezuela as well. READ ARTICLE
The fact that Brazil is on the rise is certainly nothing new, especially given its membership in the highly visible BRIC outfit created ten years ago. Yet while dozens of books on China and India flood the market every year, the number of authors who attempt to present a succinct yet comprehensive overview over contemporary Brazil remains low. Larry Rohter’s attempt to fill the gap is therefore to be welcomed. READ REVIEW
Deborah Brautigam has studied China in Africa for decades, and her latest book arguably provides the best analysis on the market. In a very well-structured and data-rich compilation, Brautigam is able to dispel popular myths; for example about China’s supposedly negative influence on governance in African states. READ REVIEW
Book review: “The New Brazil” by Riordan Roett

In this concise and very accessible book, Riordan Roett, one of the United States' leading Brazil scholars, provides a brief overview of Brazil's history and then comments, with some more detail, on political developments during the last five years. After providing some geopolitical context in the introduction, Roett quickly moves from Brazil's colonial experience five hundred years ago to the present, spending little more than a few pages to key episodes such as the Portuguese royal family's arrival in Brazil in 1808, independence in 1822, the abolition of slavery in 1888 and the end of the empire in 1889. The Old Republic, Getulio Vargas, the Estado Novo and the 1946 are summarized in a wikipedia-like fashion, and throughout the reader longs to hear fewer facts but more 'big picture analysis' that Roett is certainly capable of.
Since the book offers virtually no original interpretation of the (carefully researched and throughout adequate) facts, it is not recommendable for Brazil scholars, who are unlikely to find any new information. Rather, Roett's work is an ideal for curious visitors to Brazil who long for a bit more detailed information that the Lonely Planet's Brazil Travel Guide provides. With its 150 pages, the book can be easily from cover to cover during an intercontinental flight to São Paulo or Rio de Janeiro. In the same way, it may be useful as introductory reading for an undergraduate or graduate course on Latin America, although more detailed accounts such as Boris Fausto's Concise History of Brazil are probably more useful.
In several instances, Roett's analysis raises questions the author does not sufficiently address. For example, he continuously refers to 1994 as a 'turnaround', referring to President Cardoso's capacity to reform and open up Brazil's economy and contain inflation, achievements accompanied by unprecedented political stability. Yet he also acknowledges that in many ways Cardoso's Real Plan was comparable to previous anti-inflationary measures, and that his strategy of opening up the economy and reducing the role of the state was in many ways a continuation of President Collor's policies.
The final part of the book shows how quickly Brazil has risen to international stardom. Roett cites a 2003 Goldman Sachs report which predicts that Brazil's GDP will overtake that of Great Britain in 2036 - something that happened in late 2011 already. While in the 1990s Brazilian banks seemed unlikely to turn into global players anytime soon, in 2009 three of the world's top ten banks in terms of market capitalization were Brazilian.
Roett's analysis of regional integration seems somewhat superficial. He writes that "the hope of the members is that UNASUR will evolve, over time, into a EU-like South American Union", yet there is ample evidence that Brazil has little interest in bearing the cost of regional integration. Similarly, when speaking about Brazil- EU ties, Roett heavily relies on summit declarations, which often provide an incomplete impression.
Finally, it would be interesting to hear Roett's thoughts on the challenges Brazil is likely to face over the next decades - such as a potential regional backlash against Brazil's rise, growing security responsibilities in the South Atlantic, and the increasing necessity to take a clear stand on complex issues such as humanitarian intervention.
10. Is Central America doomed?
After Mexico's President Calderon's crackdown against drug trafficking, resulting in unprecedented levels of violence in the country (about 50,000 deaths since 2006), organized crime is spreading South to countries such as Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala . In formerly peaceful countries such as Honduras, homicide rates have doubled over the past years, causing tourists and investors to flee in growing numbers. But drugs are not the only problem. Rather, weak and corrupt institutions across the region make provide a fertile ground for organized crime and ideologues who care little about democratic principles. With neither Mexico, the United States nor Brazil willing or able to project leadership in the region, there is a serious risk that Central America will be succumbed by chaos and despair.
9. Can India end its political deadlock? What does this mean for the future of democracy?
Even the most fervent pro-India advocates recently had to acknowledge that the government's incapacity to push through much-needed reforms is seriously hampering the South Asian giant's rise. With an uninspiring government and an opposition that prefers paralysis to progress, some begin to argue that unless India can reform its political system, it cannot tackle its most urgent challenges. This raises questions not only about India's ability to reduce inequality and poverty, but also about the balance of power in Asia, and about whether economic growth of Chinese dimensions and democracy are compatible. If China continues to outpace India, promoters of democratic principles around the world will have an ever harder time to make their case.
8. Can the BRICS work together?
When the BRICS countries will meet in India in April 2012, their summit declaration will be, as usual, the subject of extensive global scrutiny, particularly from Western analysts who seek to depict the BRICS as a useless outfit unable to agree on anything. Countless op-eds will stress the contrast between India’s and Brazil’s vibrant democracies and China’s and India’s authoritarian regimes, point out that India and China may start a war at any moment, and say that Russia is not an emerging power to begin with. There is no question that the BRICS alliance is highly diverse, and that the concept may very well fail to make its mark – yet the internal differences should not overshadow the unique opportunity emerging powers have to use the BRICS summits as a vehicle to turn into international agenda setters. If the BRICS were able to take a constructive position on any of the great challenges the world is facing today – such as nuclear proliferation, trade, the Middle East or climate change – they would immediately turn into the powerful voice in international affairs they long to be, seriously challenging the monopoly the West still holds in the global discourse.
7. Can Africa capitalize on its growth?
While Africa has long been the symbol of hopelessness and despair, economic growth over the past years has attracted investors from all over the world. As The Economist pointed out recently, Africa grew faster in the last decade than East Asia, and it is set to grow by 6% in 2012. The big question now is whether Africa can continue to prosper as demand for commodities is weakening and if it can industrialize. Also, it remains to be seen whether growth translates into lower levels of poverty, and whether democracy can take root across the region. Also, if the continent can continue its positive trajectory, its governments could soon turn tackle regional challenges (such as piracy in the Indian Ocean) more effectively.
6. Can India and China get along?
Whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, the chance for conflict greatly increases as their growing spheres of influence quickly overlap - one of the main reason why Europe's history is full of bloody wars. This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a rising India begin to claim influence over the same regions. After India and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore oil in the South China Sea, an aggressive op-ed in The Global Times (a Chinese newspaper) accused India of "poking its nose where it does not belong." China is busy creating alliances with India's neighbors, while India has - to China's dismay - begun to strengthen ties with Japan, Australia, and the United States. While trade between India and China is growing, this alone may not be enough to prevent an escalation - as World War I made abundantly clear. Similar to today's China and India, Imperial Germany felt "encircled" - a word analysts from both China and India use with growing frequency.
5. Can democracy take root in the Middle East?
The year 2011 has seen an unprecedented series of uprisings across the Middle East that led to the ouster of dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Those who envisioned a seamless transition to perfect democracy were of course disappointed, but as Stephen Walt correctly pointed out in a recent post, "if the history of revolutions tells us anything, it is that rebuilding new political orders is a protracted, difficult, and unpredictable process, and having a few Mandelas around is no guarantee of success." How democratic will Egypt become after its recent elections? What about Libya and Tunisia? 2012 will provide answers, certainly providing ammunition for both optimists and pessimists.
4. Can China's Communist Party maintain political stability amidst the economic slowdown?
8% growth is often mentioned as a magic figure by China specialists who argue that anything less will cause China's political order to break down. The Communist Party has been able to cling to power because it is seen as a responsible manager of the economy, and the Chinese today are better off than at any point in history. In 2012, growth may fall below 8%. As a precautionary measure during the Arab Spring, the Chinese government has decided to pursue more repressive policies, which led to the worst political crackdown since the protets on Tiananmen Square. Unrest in China could have serious political consequences in the region, and the resulting economic turmoil would be strongly felt by economies in Africa and South America that increasingly depend on Chinese demand.
3. Will the United States or Israel attack Iran?
In a shocking example of war-mongering, Matthew Kroenig recently argued in a Foreign Affairs article that attacking Iran was the "least bad option", saying that a nuclear Iran would be much worse for the United States and the world than an attack. As Juan Cole frequently points out in his terrific blog on Middle Eastern affairs, a military strike against Iran could have disastrous consequences for the region, and Iran is a much more potent opponent than Iraq or Afghanistan. More importantly still, the case for war is not a solid one, and similarities to the debate about the Iraq War are striking, as Walt points out here. Despite all this, over the past months, there has been a notable shift in the way U.S. analysts in D.C. talk about Iran and the possibility of a strike. As Walt writes, "Kroenig is openly calling for preventive war against Iran, even though the United States has no authorization from the U.N. Security Council, it is not clear that Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons, and Iran has not attacked us or any of our allies - ever."
2. Can the US economy recover?
The U.S. economy remains the world's largest, the United States' ability to recover economically will determine how quickly the global economy can leave the most severe crisis since the Great Depression behind. The speed of economic recovery in 2012 will also undoubtedly impact whether President Obama can convince voters to reelect him. With the European economy likely to be in tatters for most of 2012, a U.S. comeback would be of particular importance for the West to retake the initiative and focus on global challenges rather than dealing with internal challenges.
1. Will the European Union survive?
The possibility of a breakup of the European Union has been looming for months, and such a scenario would send shockwaves around the world, affecting projects of regional integration that have traditionally identified the EU as a model, as I have argued in a recent blog post. Since the EU's creation, Europe, long a source of tension and war, turned into a pole of peace and stability. The end of the EU as we know it could not only plunge the continent into disarray at a level unknown to the generation born after 1945, but also drastically reduce Europe's importance in geopolitical affairs, depriving the international community of a crucial actor.
Buenos Aires Herald: New partners look to the future

Article about Seminar "The New India and the New Latin America", in Buenos Aires on December 5. Read full article here.
Prior to a recent meeting of Latin American policy makers and academics in Rio de Janeiro, I asked a participant from Ecuador whether he'd prefer to speak Spanish or Portuguese. "Nobody in Ecuador bothers to learn Portuguese", he answered. Ecuador is hardly exceptional. In Argentina, Chile or in any other Spanish-speaking country on the continent, it is probably easier to find people fluent in French or German than in Portuguese. In the same way, very few Brazilians care to learn Spanish, despite the fact that the vast majority of its neighbors speak it. Considering Brazil's dominant economic and political position on the South American continent, this may seem puzzling to outside observers.
In the same meeting, a former foreign minister of one of Brazil's neighbors affirmed that his country was culturally more connected to several European countries, saying he felt "far away from Brazil", which now "has a global focus rather than a regional one". But the increasing presence of Brazilian companies in the region, the opaque nuclear policy (e.g. construction of nuclear-power submarines), "makes us uneasy".
This was very much aligned with the views several Uruguayans shared with me during my visit to Montevideo two weeks ago - Brazil, according to them, sought to be "o mais grande do mundo" (the world's greatest, in Portuñol), but cared little about its neighbors' welfare. "When was the last time Brazil stood up for Latin America?" a Uruguayan minister asked me during an interview.
Much too late has the public debate in Brazil picked up on growing anti-Brazilian feelings in the region. Brazilian policy makers' traditional view, particularly on the left, is still that South America needs to resist North American dominance, something that seems increasingly out of touch from a, say, Bolivian or Paraguayan perspective.
Indeed, while Brazilian policy makers frequently affirm their commitment to their neighborhood (in what seems like a grotesque inflation of pro-regional rhetoric), one cannot deny that many policy makers and analysts are currently too attracted to global issues - the rise of China, India, the conflict in the Middle East, opening embassies in Africa - to engage with its immediate neighbors in a more profound manner. Yet Brazil's frequently mentioned soft power may be more powerful in Luanda and New Delhi than in Asunción or La Paz.
Finally, Brazil's decision to drop the concept of 'Latin America' and focus on South America instead (by, among others, creating UNASUR), is seen as a worrying sign that Brasília would like to exclude Mexico, the only country that could dispute its dominant position, from its sphere of influence. (Brazil’s support for CELAC, a club that includes all of Latin America but excludes the US and Canada, can be understood as a mere gesture, and the Brazilian media rightly treated its recent creation as a non-event.)
At the same time, when proposing innovative policies that could help Brazil deal with anti-Brazilian feelings in the region, one must be careful not to overestimate Brazil's capacity. It is by far the greatest economy in the region, but its per-capita GDP is still lower than that of countries such as Uruguay or Chile. It is thus too easy to point to Germany's role in the EU and ask Brazil to turn into the region's paymaster. Contrasting Germany's economic dependence on the EU, Brazil's economy is increasingly detached from the region, particularly driven by skyrocketing trade with China.
In order to avoid any unwelcome backlash in the region, policy makers in may need to be more innovative to assure that its neighbors welcome Brazil's rise. For example, Brazil should think about how to combine its regional and global strategy. It could think about establishing an open dialogue with its neighbors about its nuclear policy, energy policy and evolving security strategy and its redefinition of the South Atlantic Space. And most importantly, it needs to lay out clearly what its vision of the region is and how it intends to go about implementing it - as always, transparency is a powerful tool to mitigate fear.


















