BY OLIVER STUENKEL | MARCH 14, 2019
Bolsonaro’s visit to the White House will help fire up his core supporters. But investors will look for concrete action the meeting may not produce.
https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/inside-bolsonaros-foreign-policy-bet-trump
When Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro convene in Washington next week they will “shake the earth,” a high-ranking diplomat involved in preparing the meeting privately promised last week.
Indeed, in several ways, the encounter is set to be revolutionary. When Bolsonaro announced his trip on Twitter, supporters began posting pictures of the two presidents dressed as action heroes and images of Brazilian and American flags fluttering side by side. Never before has a Brazilian president associated himself so closely to his U.S. counterpart, ranging from his use of social media, nostalgia for past glory and disdain for checks and balances, mainstream media, climate change, socialism and minorities. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo famously argued that only Trump could “save the West.” And Bolsonaro’s foreign policy is built around one single promise: to transform the United States into Brazil’s key partner.
Yet, a dynamic that has become a hallmark of this Brazilian government will also be on display in Washington: the anti-globalist, pro-Trump faction of the Bolsonaro administration, which includes his foreign minister, will clash with the more prudent generals, led by Vice President Hamilton Mourão, and the technocrats, represented by the Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and Justice Minister Sérgio Moro. While Mourão will not be at the meeting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him publicly contradict Bolsonaro while the president is traveling, as he has continuously done over the past few months.
What concrete decisions can we expect to see? Here are some of the topics that are likely to be included in the Trump – Bolsonaro agenda:
Venezuela:
How to address the crisis in Venezuela is certain to be part of the conversation. While Araújo’s early comments about radical alignment with the United States raised hopes in Washington that Brazil would side with Trump no matter what – including stationing U.S. troops if a military intervention were to take place – Mourão has firmly rejected such possibility, just as he brushed aside all talk of a permanent U.S. military base in Brazilian territory. Just days before Bolsonaro’s trip, Mourão seemed to reaffirm the deepening sense that he controls key foreign policy decisions when he voiced hopes about starting back-channel talks with more moderate elements of the Nicolás Maduro regime. U.S. diplomats have privately wondered whether Araújo is “all hat, no cattle” – doubting his capacity to push back against Mourão and the generals.
Defense:
The Trump administration may declare Brazil a major non-NATO ally (MNNA). The grouping includes Israel, Japan, South Korea and Australia – Argentina is the only Latin American country on the list so far. The designation opens the door to closer military ties with the U.S. and helps Brazilian suppliers join consortia and bid for some U.S. defense contracts. It is also likely to broaden cooperation in intelligence sharing and in the fight against transnational crime and drug trafficking. For Brazil, it would..
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