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Why the EU-Mercosur Deal Hinges on Germany’s Reaction to Bolsonaro (Americas Quarterly)

 10 September 2019

BY OLIVER STUENKEL | SEPTEMBER 10, 2019 Economic and geopolitical interests clash with surging public concern about the environment.

https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/why-eu-mercosur-deal-hinges-germanys-reaction-bolsonaro

Recent international outcry over fires in the Amazon and President Jair Bolsonaro's defiant response has done more than negatively affect Brazil's global reputation. The episode has also set in motion a complex debate across Europe about how to react to Brazil's environmental stance, and whether to go ahead with the ratification of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur.

Ratification of the accord would lead to a historic deepening of economic and geopolitical ties between Europe and South America. But the deal was thrown in doubt when France's President Emmanuel Macron, along with Irish Prime Minister Leo …

Bolsonaro Fans the Flames (Foreign Affairs)

 2 September 2019

 

Brazil’s Government Still Has One Faction That Can Douse Them By Oliver Stuenkel August 30, 2019

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2019-08-30/bolsonaro-fans-flames

Thousands of fires have raged over the past weeks in the Amazon, devastating parts of the rainforest and badly damaging Brazil’s global reputation. Since taking office in January, the country’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has encouraged deforestation, a policy that environmentalists around the world link to the forest fires and have loudly protested. But Bolsonaro seems to revel in his role as environmental enemy number one, responding to criticism from world leaders in the same way he reacts to his opponents at home: with provocative disdain. He taunted French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, called the fires and the …

Four Signs Trump’s Venezuela Strategy Is Backfiring (Americas Quarterly)

 22 August 2019

 

BY OLIVER STUENKEL | AUGUST 22, 2019 The humanitarian toll of U.S. sanctions is mounting, and Guaidó's association with Trump has become his greatest liability.

https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/four-signs-trumps-venezuela-strategy-backfiring

CARACAS – Since January, the U.S. government has taken an aggressive strategy toward Venezuela – one driven by allusions to military intervention, an oil embargo and the decision to take the lead in formally recognizing National Assembly president Juan Guaidó as president, despite Nicolás Maduro’s control of the armed forces. New measures announced this month are even tougher: they include a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the U.S. and sanctions against U.S. individuals and entities that do business with the Maduro regime.

Yet the overall cost of President Donald Trump's approach …

Efecto Cocuyo: “Una transición en Venezuela tardaría años, afirma profesor Oliver Stuenkel”

 20 August 2019

http://efectococuyo.com/politica/una-transicion-en-venezuela-tardaria-anos-afirma-profesor-oliver-stuenkel-conlaluz/

Para el profesor y experto en relaciones internacionales de la Fundación Getulio Vargas de Brasil, Oliver Stuenkel, un proceso de transición en Venezuela no será rápido; por el contrario tardará tiempo y la comunidad internacional no se ha puesto a pensar en esta posibilidad.

Así lo dijo la noche de este jueves 15 de agosto durante la entrevista #ConLaLuz que condujo nuestra directora general, Luz Mely Reyes, con quien conversó sobre la crisis política y económica en el país.

Para que haya elecciones libres es necesario que los observadores internacionales estén semana previa al proceso, pero también que se supervise el proceso previo. Aunque es el deseo de muchos, lograrlo no es una tarea fácil porque requiere “la presencia …

Entrevista: ‘Confronto que Bolsonaro promove pode impactar influência brasileira na Argentina’

 14 August 2019

https://internacional.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,confronto-que-bolsonaro-promove-pode-impactar-influencia-brasileira-na-argentina-diz-analista,70002966559

Para Oliver Stuenkel, da FGV, imagem de Macri na Argentina é prejudicada por apoio de Bolsonaro, enquanto críticas a Fernández comprometem alianças com país vizinho

A troca de farpas entre o presidente Jair Bolsonaro e o kirchnerista Alberto Fernández representa o risco de uma relação bilateral ruim entre Brasil e Argentina e uma diminuição da relevância econômica brasileira no país vizinho. A opinião é do professor de Relações Internacionais da Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Oliver Stuenkel.

Qual avaliação podemos fazer dessa rusga entre o presidente Bolsonaro e Fernández?

Primeiro é preciso dizer que o resultado na Argentina tem um impacto importante sobre a dinâmica regional. Dentro desse novo contexto, de uma vitória do Fernández, a janela que a gente tinha …

Ataques de Bolsonaro contra universidades seguem mesma lógica de Hugo Chávez (EL PAÍS)

 13 August 2019

 

OLIVER STUENKEL 12 AGO 2019 - 19:51 BRT

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2019/08/13/opinion/1565648323_558328.html

Nas eleições presidenciais de 1998, 56% dos eleitores venezuelanos decidiram dar uma chance ao ex-militar Hugo Chávez, um antipolítico que prometia acabar com a "velha política" e a corrupção. O discurso inflamado e as convicções autoritárias de Chávez foram a estratégia acertada em uma eleição marcada pela ampla insatisfação com o sistema político tradicional e o desejo de ruptura. No ano seguinte, em uma entrevista ao jornal O Estado de S. Paulo, o então deputado e ex-militar Jair Bolsonaro chamou o líder venezuelano de uma "esperança para a América Latina." Foi além: "Gostaria muito que esta filosofia chegasse ao Brasil. Acho ele ímpar. Pretendo ir à Venezuela e tentar conhecê-lo”. …

Why the Lava Jato Leaks Are Bad News for Brazil’s Opposition (Americas Quarterly)

 18 July 2019

 

https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/why-lava-jato-leaks-are-bad-news-brazils-opposition

BY OLIVER STUENKEL | JULY 18, 2019

Revelations about prosecutors' bias and rule-breaking could prevent the opposition from renewing itself.

SÃO PAULO - Ever since Jair Bolsonaro's election as president last October, Brazil’s opposition has been in tatters. Reeling and unable to respond to the president’s rapid-fire absurdities, left-of-center parties have been largely transformed into spectators. Cabinet infighting and Bolsonaro’s behavior have dominated headlines, and led to growing discontent among moderates over the president's style of governing. But a leaderless opposition has failed to articulate its own competing narrative.

Recent events suggest this trend will continue – and that in the opposition’s struggle to find a new identity, hardliners will have the upper hand.

Take Congress’ approval of …

Política ambiental acirra embate ideológico ao redor do mundo (EL PAÍS)

 12 July 2019

 

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2019/07/12/opinion/1562946819_580269.html

OLIVER STUENKEL 12 JUL 2019 - 19:24 CEST

Em cada vez mais países, o debate público sobre como enfrentar a mudança global do clima está virando tema central do embate entre a extrema-direita e o campo progressista. Nos Estados Unidos, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a nova estrela da esquerda, escolheu o combate contra o aquecimento global como peça-chave da sua mensagem, e o clima é prioridade dos candidatos do Partido Democrata ao desafiar o presidente Donald Trump, que rejeita as evidências científicas sobre as mudanças climáticas. Durante a recente campanha na Dinamarca, os social-democratas priorizaram o debate sobre o tema, escolha considerada decisiva para sua vitória apertada nas eleições contra o Partido do Povo Dinamarquês, da direita. Na Alemanha, o …

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